Thank Goodness for Caffeine!

Before I go any further… I must say that I totally do not have an addictive personality… but…

I REALLY LOVE COFFEE!!!!

The past 23 days — as we’ve endured a landfalling tropical storm (Fay), two minor scares (Gustav, Hanna), and one major scare (Ike) — days off have been few and far between.  Matter of fact, the evening of my one day off the past month I got a call from NBC in New York saying they needed help covering Gustav.  A few hours later, I was at the airport heading north…

So, aside from the love & support of my awesome family… how have I (and all five of us for that matter) gotten through???  COFFEE!!!

Lots of coffee…

My beautiful wife brews a pot of Peet’s Coffee (from Seattle — it’s great) each morning as I hop on the computer to check out the latest tropical outlooks.  I’ll grab a latte either after working out or just before heading into NBC6.  Usually, I’ll call into the weather office to make sure everybody else has their caffeine jolt.  If not, it’ll be a big order at Starbucks or It’s A Grind.  Later in the evening, another coffee usually is in the works.

It has been a huge team effort in the NBC6 Weather Office… and the team’s “sixth man” has been the carafe of coffee in the corner!

That said, it has been a pleasure working so much the past several weeks.  John, Ryan, Trina, and Jennifer are awesome people — and professionals — to work with… and you, the viewer, have been amazing in the questions you have e-mailed us… and in asking for the non-hyped tropical coverage we are happy to deliver.

We’ve got a few more months of hurricane season to go — and we promise you that we’ll be there every step of the way.

Most likely holding a fresh cup of coffee…

– Paul

Close…Verrrry Close

I write this as a Monday morning quarterback (even though it’s actually Wednesday afternoon) and as I reflect on our coverage, our threat level, and our tone, I always assess and re-assess what we could have said, done, or explained better or differently. There is always room for improvement, but my motto is, and has always been, “is what I am saying scaring, or informing my family as they watch from home”? I would never tell the viewers (you) anything different than I would tell my family. I would never use a different tone on the air than I would use in informing my family. Of this you can be sure. As I write this, I have in front of me a visible satellite loop of Ike which shows every detail of the structure, core, and circulation in and around Ike. I can’t take my eyes off of how “beautiful” this system looks from outer space. Then it hits me, and this is what I want you to understand as I explained to neighbors in my community earlier today. If Ike had tracked 150 miles farther north, we would still be picking up the pieces in our yards at this hour. Even with shutters, we’d be clearing debris from our yards and some of our walls would be located in someone else’s backyard (with the shutters still attached) We can play “could have”, “should have” all we want, but when we started tracking Ike nearly 2,500 miles away, in the end it was the difference of less than 200 miles that made the difference between destruction and just being mildly inconvenienced. I believe our tone matched the threat level, and I’m proud to say that we are the only station that showed restraint by not telling you a category 4 hurricane would track right over Miami-Dade and Broward Counties 4-5 days out. Turns out that instead of Ike being near Little Havana on Tuesday, it was closer to the REAL Havana (Cuba). We will inform you of impending danger a week away but the tone will ALWAYS match the threat level. Personally, as I watch Ike moving away and becoming a concern for the Gulf coast, allow me a moment to say “whheewww”, glad we got it right but don’t expect much to change in the way we handle the next one. In fact, I believe you’ll see the OTHER stations covering these swirling monsters a little differently in the future. Hopefully, even our colleagues at the other stations can learn something from our coverage, like not using the line down the middle of the cone and not putting the hurricane icons on the map for days 4 & 5. Call days 4 & 5 a “risk area” like we did. I am proud to say that you, the viewers have responded very positively. Thank you, we’re glad we dodged this bullet. Now let’s just be mindful of those who were affected, and those who will be in the days ahead. One final note…Don’t return your non-perishables and supplies, we still have 2 1/2 months to go before the end of the season. Be prepared for those “late-bloomers” in October and November. Right now there is nothing else out there so let’s reflect on this near-miss and catch our breath!

John Gerard

In the wake…

Earlier this morning I was thinking about how I’ve spent the last few days…and more importantly, how my co-workers have spent the last few days. The main difference on my mind weighed on those who were outside versus those who were inside.

Me?  Well 9.7 out of ten times I’ll be in the studio whenever there is something tropical going on (really, I have no idea what happens to me the other .3 of the time…)  So therefore, I stay dry.  Out and about in the Keys, however, we found Jennifer Gray, Jeff Burnside, Hank Tester, Amara Hank and Steve Litz with our awesome team of news photographers and technical staff.  They stayed wind-blown and wet for the last three days.  At times I wanted to be out there reporting while I’m sure at times, they wanted to be inside the studio, staying dry.

My hats off to all of our crews who were out and about in the Keys and the mainland for the last few days.  Was it the most intense hurricane we’ve had to cover, no?  But it did impact our viewing area and it called on our team to be live in the elements telling the story from Key Largo to Key West. 

As Ike slowly releases his grip on South Florida and the Keys…gradually we’ll see improvement in the local forecast with today’s windy conditions relaxing to breezy by tomorrow.  The pay-off for all of this?  A hot and dry summer weekend here for the area Saturday and Sunday. 

So here’s  a neat little web nugget that I fell into yesterday that I thought I’d share.

I take these pictures for being real (authentic) and unaltered, though I don’t know that for sure.  (These days, Photoshop could make Barney a supermodel…though I don’t think that’s the case the photos you’ll see.)

So while this is not an endorsement of this website, I look at these snapshots thinking about the contrast of the beauty above, versus the disaster below, a hurricane.

Check out the pics here.

-Ryan

Ike: Tuesday Night

Quick update for those of you who are curious to know what’ll be happening tonight.

BROWARD:  Still breezy.  Scattered showers — rain heavy at times.  Wind gusts to 35 mph.

DADE:  Still breezy.  Off/on showers, especially South Miami-Dade, wind gusts to 40 mph.

UPPER KEYS:  Winds still to 40-45 mph overnight.  Rain heavy at times.  Isolated tornadoes.

LOWER KEYS:  Still very windy & wet.  Winds gusting to 45-60 mph.  Rain heavy at times.  Isolated tornadoes.

The weather will likely feature more sunshine and less wind by Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms.  Thursday through Sunday should be partly sunny and mainly dry.

Here’s the best part:  NOTHING brewing in the tropics!

I am so glad to hear that… have a good night –

– Paul

Ike – Random Thoughts

It’s been a roller-coaster ride when it comes to the life cycle of Hurricane Ike.  At this time last Friday, the National Hurricane Center “5-day cone” had a big fat Category 4 icon sitting right on top of Miami Beach.  Of course,  the 5-day cone should always be taken for exactly what it is.  A 5-day forecast, with a possibility of error over 500 miles across.  Not to mention,  the NHC admittedly is very inconsistent in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones.  An absolutely perfect reason why this station does not include 4 and 5 day icons on our forecast track. 

So back to last Friday.  See how much Mother Nature can change in 4 or 5 days?  Now Ike is a category 1 hurricane hugging the southern coast of Cuba, over 200 miles away from Miami Beach.  However, to the NHC’s credit, the storm still ended up well within the original 5-day cone from last week.  No one can debate the forecast track UNLESS they’re obsessed with focusing on that skinny black line that we always tell people NOT to look at. 

The other big mistake people make is forgetting just how big these storms are.  A hurricane extends far beyond that little ”icon” on the weather map.  Another reason why you don’t focus on the skinny black line, or the middle of the cone.  A major hurricane headed through the Florida Straits would not only seriously affect the Keys, but also Miami-Dade, Broward, and even Palm Beach counties.   These systems usually spread tropical force winds well beyond 150 to 200 miles from the center.  Remember Wilma?  ALL of South Florida up to Lake Okeechobee experienced hurricane-force winds, so you have to take each and every hurricane for what it is.  They’re all different.

That brings me to my final takeaway, which is why we still covered Ike with extended newscasts and multiple cut-ins over the past several days, even though South Florida was “out of the cone” and not in danger of a direct hit.  Well, it’s the potential“indirect” effects from Ike that warranted a steady stream of information and forecasting.  The message was clear and concise – be aware of the weather, and be aware of Ike’s proximity to South Florida.  Pretty simple plan, and a pretty responsible one considering any sort of wobble by Ike to the north would’ve placed most of South Florida at risk for higher winds, and hurricane-force gusts.

As with human nature though, some viewers commented on our tropical blog and fired off emails saying coverage was excessive and unnecessary with South Florida no longer in the cone.  One viewer email even suggested that the Weather Plus team as a whole was actually “disappointed” Ike was no longer expected to make an impact here at home.  Anyone who entertains such a ridiculous notion obviously forgets the fact that we have families here, and our homes would be at risk too.  It should also be noted that as a business, the station suffers lost revenue during any type of extended storm coverage. 

The most important reason extended coverage was still necessary was for our friends and viewers in the Florida Keys, not to mention the thousands of tourists who have no idea how to handle an event like this.  The Keys, a part of our coverage area, was put under a Hurricane Watch by the National Hurricane Center on Sunday.  Evacuations were ordered as a precaution for any type of deviation in Ike’s path.  As a television station, we’re responsible to provide information that is important to those residents regarding their safety and protection of property.  (In fact, it’s an FCC guideline enforced by the government.)

 Last night was a great example of Ike’s size and influence as we watched rain band after rain band, packing winds of 50 to 70 miles per hour, slam into the Keys.  A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet also swept through the island chain, flooding streets in Key West.  Pretty impressive considering Ike was still tracking over 150 miles away from the Keys.  Also pretty scary, when you stop to think of the possible implications had Ike wobbled just a little bit farther north.

So, when it comes to storms like Ike, which has killed over 80 people across the Caribbean, caused billions of dollars in damage, and is within 200 miles of our coast, there can never be too much information.  Just because your backyard isn’t in danger, doesn’t mean your neighbors to the south are in the clear.  Plus, a lot of our viewers have relatives and friends throughout the Caribbean who suffered catastrophic losses because of Ike.  The importance and relevance of this storm goes far beyond a “cone” or “dotted line.”

We’re simply here to keep you calm, informed, and prepared for the storms if they come.  It’s something we take pride in as fellow members of your community.

-Mike Jenkins, EP – NBC 6 Weather Plus

A Breezy Wait…

It’s 9pm tonight… and I am spending my evening in the Weather Center both looking at the radar and at the Marlins/Phillies game.  Just bought a coffee down the street… and I have to admit, it is kind of windy outside.  Not damaging wind, but a stiff breeze nonetheless.

We should be VERY thankful that it’s a breeze and not destruction.

Reports out of some of the islands of the Turks & Caicos say that some of the islands suffered major damage to homes and businesses.  One report I read concerning the Bahamian island of Great Inagua is that all power lines are down, homes are ruined, and the island’s main employer is just about wiped out.  I am sure we’ll hear reports of death and damage from many parts of Cuba, who just got hit by Gustav several days ago.

Ike may “miss” here… but it hit too many places directly.

As I watch the radar, I am noticing a strong rainband about 20 miles south of the Lower Keys.  It’ll still be a few hours before it moves onshore, but when it does the winds will gust to 40-50 mph with heavy rain.  Expect these rainbands to move north overnight, and I think it’ll be windy and wet at times in Miami-Dade by morning and Broward by lunchtime Tuesday.

Even a glancing blow from a hurricane can be pretty windy — and that’s what we’re in for over the next 24 hours.

Have a good evening…

– Paul

When Will It get Bad Here?

That’s the question I get asked the most. It’s not like it’ll just “get bad” at a certain time, and then be “not bad” at a certain time. This will be an event that will be building through the overnight hours and into the first half of Wednesday, so there is a “window” between midnight tonight and noon on Wednesday when we’ll see the  worst of whatever ike dishes out here locally. Do NOT expect hurricane conditions anywhere in South Florida although hurricane-forced gusts might come close to the middle and lower keys later tonight. We will see winds gusting to over 40 mph with some of the stronger rainbands and that might be enough to cause F.P.L. a few headaches. So far, dry air ahead of Ike continues to have a grip on our weather so rainbands and squalls have remained suppressed across extreme south Miami-Dade County and the Keys but tropical moisture and greater instability should move north tonight and overspread the rest of South Florida.  The magic numer is 80, as in 80 degrees west longitude. Once Ike crosses that line, we’ll be on the “stronger” side of the hurricane and rainbands will increase quickly here. I hate these storms that hit at night but unfortunately the worst of it will be overnight into the rush hour tomorrow. Ike is still expected to head into the Gulf of Mexico later in the week and possibly threaten Texas.  We’ll see what the 5:00 P.M. advisory says but at this point in the game for us locally, it’s now just a matter of watching the radar and “nowcasting” through at least midday Wednesday.

John Gerard

8 PM Advisory On Ike

Hurricane Ike is bearing down on the eastern coast of Cuba at this hour after leaving widespread destruction across the Inaguas, the Turks & Caicos and the Southeastern Bahamas. The center is at 21.1N/75.2W, or about 40 miles north of Guantanamo. Ike is moving west at 14 mph. We’re having trouble getting reliable information from those areas but from what we’ve heard so far it’s about as bad as one could imagine. I’m sure more photos and video will be available as we head into Monday. At 8:00 P.M., Ike is still packing winds of 120 mph with higher gusts and is still a category 3 storm. The core of Ike is expected to move over eastern Cuba tonight and central Cuba on Monday. It’s trek across Cuba should weaken it the next couple of days, but once again our gain is Cuba’s pain. We have that buffer to our south and hurricanes lose some of their punch there but while that might be good for us, it’s always bittersweet because Cuba seems to get the worst of it most every time. As broadcasters, we always try to be mindful of others dangerous situation, even if it means things won’t be too bad here. People are left in rubble and ruins from the Bahamas to Cuba and my son wants to know if there is school tomorrow, and hoping there isn’t. Well, there is, at least in Broward. I can’t blame him for wanting to miss school, how many of us who lived up north would hope and pray for snow so we could stay home? We’ve all done it. But this isn’t a snowstorm, it’s a hurricane with destructive wind, rain, and storm surge, and as a dad and a meteorologist it’s always a balancing act for me at home between enjoying my son’s smile when school is closed and feeling sad for those who are affected by it most in other countries. So many times you’ll hear people on t.v. say “well, it’s looking good for us because the storm will move through Haiti, or Cuba, or the Bahamas first”. I don’t think it’s being insensitive, just ignorant and immature. There, I vented. Oh, back to the reason I started writing in the first place…There is no change in the track or strength at 8:00 P.M., but be sure to check back at 11:00 P.M., that’s when the really big advisory package comes in. It still looks like we’ll be watching this one from a distance, but we’re still going to get rainbands, some squalls and an isolated tornado or two anytime from Monday into Wednesday. You folks in the Lower Keys will likely experience more of this than those of us here in Miami-Dade and Broward. We’ll let you know if anything changes at 11.

John Gerard

Ike: What We Think

So… it’s time to lay out what we expect to happen in South Florida over the next few days.  The predictions we are mentioning are mainly for Tuesday, although some gusty rainbands will begin moving in Monday night and may last all the way through Wednesday afternoon.

First for the Keys:  WIND:  Sustained of 50mph+… perhaps as high as 70mph.  RAIN:  3″ to 5″ total.  TORNADO:  Tornadoes likely in Keys thru Wednesday.  SURGE:  We expect a water level rise of 2′ to 4′ especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

For Miami-Dade & Broward:  WIND:  Sustained to 30mph… gusts to 45-50mph with the heaviest rainbands.  RAIN:  2″ to 4″ total.  Isolated tornadoes possible.  Little or no storm surge threat.

You will notice that the weather for the mainland is not great, but also not horrible.  Hurricane conditions are NOT expected in Miami-Dade and Broward.  But we will see tropical storm conditions in all of the Florida Keys, with hurricane (74 mph+) conditions possible in the lower Keys.

Shutters?  That’s your personal call.  I live in Miami-Dade, and I did not close my accordions.  Don’t follow exactly what I did — you need to make that call yourself — but that’s how the Deanno household looks.  If I lived in the Keys, they would be up by tomorrow morning.  Better safe than sorry… because “sorry” can be very expensive.

This forecast is subject to change if/when the track changes… but that’s what we think as of right now.

Have a great Sunday night…

– Paul

Busy Morning…Still Waiting

Hey Friends…

Sorry for the delay in getting this posted.  I always start writing the blog then get pulled into something else and never make it back to finish it!

Anyway…here’s Ike as of 2pm…

This Hurricane has done a number on The Turks/Caicos as well as Great Inagua in the last 24 hours.

Now it’s moving towards Cuba for a likely landfall tonight.  This is a potent category 4 storm with winds around 135mph.  We don’t see many of those through the season.  It IS remarkable.

That said, it’s not likely that Ike will maintain that intensity much more than the next 18-24 hour period.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps Ike over Cuba for a long period of time…running the system up the spine of the island nation.  That will pretty much zap the intensity of the storm, dampening the potential impacts on South Florida and the Keys.  But at this point, it’s a tough call as any slight shift in the track of Ike could have big impacts on the storm’s intensity and therefore the weather for us in South Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Keys for the uncertainty that lies ahead with Ike.  Please don’t take your eyes off this system though the track is trending south and west of the area.  We are going to see some foul weather – it’s just a matter of Ike’s track and intensity that will determine just HOW STRONG and HOW LONG the winds and rains will be in our forecast.

Why am I not laying out a full forecast?  I understand it’s frustrating to NOT have it all (a local forecast) put out there for you…but the reality is, even a few days away, Hurricane Ike remains a fluid situation and one to monitor. 
Check back in soon… Master bloggers John & Paul are on their way in.

-Ryan