Ike – Random Thoughts September 9, 2008

It’s been a roller-coaster ride when it comes to the life cycle of Hurricane Ike.  At this time last Friday, the National Hurricane Center “5-day cone” had a big fat Category 4 icon sitting right on top of Miami Beach.  Of course,  the 5-day cone should always be taken for exactly what it is.  A 5-day forecast, [...]

The Risk Area…It’s 500 miles… September 5, 2008

Just want to remind you that even though the track has shifted a bit south today, the risk area could be as much as 500 miles on day 5. Focus on the cone, not the point, remember a hurricane is an area, not an exact point only. Hopefully this vlog will help you understand that. [...]

Hurricane Ike…A Big Concern, But Don’t Panic September 4, 2008

View Paul and John’s Video Blog Here:
http://www.nbc6.net/video/17394593/index.html

Is IKE Definitely Coming Here? September 4, 2008

So we’re chatting back here in the weather office today, and we’re discussing hurricane history, the odds of IKE actually hitting us, the climatology involved with systems like this one over the past 100 or so years, and the liklihood that this humungous high to the north is going to hold. Then we were looking [...]

Hanna Doing The Loop-Dee-Loop September 3, 2008

Hanna has been very erratic all day long. Instead of moving northwest, it’s moved south. Instead of warnings being issued farther north into the Northwestern Bahamas or even South Florida, warnings have been issued farther south. A Hurricane Warning continues for the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect [...]

Ready For Hanna? September 2, 2008

While it appears that the core of Hanna will pass to our east (barely) later this week, the wind field might expand both east and west of the system due to the proximity of a high pressure to our north. You’ll notice the winds increasing through midweek, not entirely from Hanna but due to the [...]

Gustav Raking Cuba August 31, 2008

Gustav has been pounding away on western Cuba for the past 12 hours and from some of the reports we’ve received via ham radio and telephone, major damage has taken place from the Isle of Youth to Havana. Cars have been reported flying through the air, storm surge has completely submerged some coastal towns, trees [...]

5 P.M. Advisory…What about us? August 18, 2008

Fay is still packing winds of 60 mph and continues to move generally north and is currently about 120 miles south of Ft. Myers. On this track, Fay should make a second landfall on the southwest Florida coast Tuesday morning.  The NHC still says it could become a category 1 hurricane just before landfall on [...]

I Feel Your Pain August 17, 2008

It’s 1:10 a.m. on Sunday morning, and I still don’t know how much Fay will impact South Florida. Billions spent on high-tech computer data, sophisticated hi-resolution satellites and radar, (in high definition no less) Wow! So how come we still need time to figure out where Fay will go? Because we’re not even convinced Fay [...]

Be Certain About The Uncertainty August 16, 2008

Even on a good day, weather is an inexact science. Unlike math where there is a clear answer to any problem, the science of weather is different. There are many possibilities, but not always a clear cut answer. The factors making the uncertainties of Fay more glaring are twofold. First, the inner core has been [...]