One eye to the north, one eye to the east

The only tropical feature in town has been the broad area of low pressure lingering near Puerto Rico.  Although it’s a small, unnamed feature right now in the Caribbean, it has presented flooding rains there for the last two days.

Several recon flights, doppler radar & satellite observation has yet to yield a system with a name or a number, but don’t let that fool you…it’s been packing a punch.

Here’s the water vapor and enhanced satellite imagery from Tuesday morning:

Water VaporEnhanced IR

While the system looks fairly robust, the interaction it has had with land has been holding it back from development.

There is a window for development in the next day or so… and while that is possible…our saving grace in Florida will be the presence of an upper-level trough swinging through the area.

You can see the trough here, using water vapor imagery, moving over Florida:

Regional WV

This trough will help to hold anything out there to our east, moving it north and away from Florida.  in fact, over the next few days, we’ll be in for some nice weather as dry, stable air settles in behind any low pressure cells that form in the Western Atlantic…either from the tropical entity in the Caribbean or the broad trough digging in.

So the bottom line of today:  all is well for Florida.