Ike is now a minimal tropical storm near Tyler, Texas and will soon be downgraded to a tropical depression. It’s expected to merge with a strong cold front over the Midwest by Monday and lose any remaining tropical characteristics. Isolated tornadoes and heavy rain arestill expected from Texas to Arkansas, into Missouri, Illinois and Indiana tonight and tomorrow but generally the weather is expected to improve in the hardest hit areas along the Gulf coast by Sunday. The thing that struck me was how large Ike was. When you hear that Ike was a “large” storm, we’re not referring to it’s maximum sustained winds, but rather the “extent” of the strong winds. The Saffir-Simpson classification scale for hurricanes (cat.1, cat.2, etc…) is based strictly on wind speed so many were convinced that Ike would be the typical category 2 hurricane. (as if that makes it any less dangerous). Ike might have been a cat. 2 but it’s power was more like a cat. 3 because it had an unusually large storm surge for a category 2 hurricane and tropical storm forced winds extended out over 500 miles from the center. Did you see how big the eye got? Remember, a tight center (small compact eye) like Andrew means an intense system but tightly wound with destructive winds extending only a small distance from the center. A larger eye means the hurricane won’t be as intense but the swath of winds will be distributed over a larger area. In other words, instead of 150 mph winds covering a radius of 40 miles, Ike had winds of 100 mph that covered over 60 miles and winds of 70 mph that covered over 400 miles. Less wind but a larger area as opposed to stronger winds in a smaller area. Ike will likely rain itself out across the midwest by midweek. I found it interesting how many residents of the Gulf coast were on t.v. today saying they regretted not evacuating. I’m watching some of the remnants of Josephine trying to spin up just east of the Bahamas this evening. I do not expect any significant development but it might increase our rain chances a bit as we head into the new week. The system is currently moving WNW and will be near or just off the Florida coast on Monday. Thanks for checking out our blog. There is no 6PM news tonight because of the Notre Dame/Michigan game so I thought I would check in for anybody who still needs info about Ike since I had a moment. Enjoy the rest of your weekend
John Gerard
