Ike – Random Thoughts

It’s been a roller-coaster ride when it comes to the life cycle of Hurricane Ike.  At this time last Friday, the National Hurricane Center “5-day cone” had a big fat Category 4 icon sitting right on top of Miami Beach.  Of course,  the 5-day cone should always be taken for exactly what it is.  A 5-day forecast, with a possibility of error over 500 miles across.  Not to mention,  the NHC admittedly is very inconsistent in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones.  An absolutely perfect reason why this station does not include 4 and 5 day icons on our forecast track. 

So back to last Friday.  See how much Mother Nature can change in 4 or 5 days?  Now Ike is a category 1 hurricane hugging the southern coast of Cuba, over 200 miles away from Miami Beach.  However, to the NHC’s credit, the storm still ended up well within the original 5-day cone from last week.  No one can debate the forecast track UNLESS they’re obsessed with focusing on that skinny black line that we always tell people NOT to look at. 

The other big mistake people make is forgetting just how big these storms are.  A hurricane extends far beyond that little ”icon” on the weather map.  Another reason why you don’t focus on the skinny black line, or the middle of the cone.  A major hurricane headed through the Florida Straits would not only seriously affect the Keys, but also Miami-Dade, Broward, and even Palm Beach counties.   These systems usually spread tropical force winds well beyond 150 to 200 miles from the center.  Remember Wilma?  ALL of South Florida up to Lake Okeechobee experienced hurricane-force winds, so you have to take each and every hurricane for what it is.  They’re all different.

That brings me to my final takeaway, which is why we still covered Ike with extended newscasts and multiple cut-ins over the past several days, even though South Florida was “out of the cone” and not in danger of a direct hit.  Well, it’s the potential“indirect” effects from Ike that warranted a steady stream of information and forecasting.  The message was clear and concise – be aware of the weather, and be aware of Ike’s proximity to South Florida.  Pretty simple plan, and a pretty responsible one considering any sort of wobble by Ike to the north would’ve placed most of South Florida at risk for higher winds, and hurricane-force gusts.

As with human nature though, some viewers commented on our tropical blog and fired off emails saying coverage was excessive and unnecessary with South Florida no longer in the cone.  One viewer email even suggested that the Weather Plus team as a whole was actually “disappointed” Ike was no longer expected to make an impact here at home.  Anyone who entertains such a ridiculous notion obviously forgets the fact that we have families here, and our homes would be at risk too.  It should also be noted that as a business, the station suffers lost revenue during any type of extended storm coverage. 

The most important reason extended coverage was still necessary was for our friends and viewers in the Florida Keys, not to mention the thousands of tourists who have no idea how to handle an event like this.  The Keys, a part of our coverage area, was put under a Hurricane Watch by the National Hurricane Center on Sunday.  Evacuations were ordered as a precaution for any type of deviation in Ike’s path.  As a television station, we’re responsible to provide information that is important to those residents regarding their safety and protection of property.  (In fact, it’s an FCC guideline enforced by the government.)

 Last night was a great example of Ike’s size and influence as we watched rain band after rain band, packing winds of 50 to 70 miles per hour, slam into the Keys.  A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet also swept through the island chain, flooding streets in Key West.  Pretty impressive considering Ike was still tracking over 150 miles away from the Keys.  Also pretty scary, when you stop to think of the possible implications had Ike wobbled just a little bit farther north.

So, when it comes to storms like Ike, which has killed over 80 people across the Caribbean, caused billions of dollars in damage, and is within 200 miles of our coast, there can never be too much information.  Just because your backyard isn’t in danger, doesn’t mean your neighbors to the south are in the clear.  Plus, a lot of our viewers have relatives and friends throughout the Caribbean who suffered catastrophic losses because of Ike.  The importance and relevance of this storm goes far beyond a “cone” or “dotted line.”

We’re simply here to keep you calm, informed, and prepared for the storms if they come.  It’s something we take pride in as fellow members of your community.

-Mike Jenkins, EP – NBC 6 Weather Plus