A study that I did several years ago shows that the median date of the end of the rainy season is October 17. Now more than a week later how come we’re still getting rained on? The culprit at the moment is a trough of lower pressure located about 3 to 5 miles above us which is lifting the air. There is also a weak front and a plume of deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean that in combination will keep us wet, warm and humid for at least the next week.
We did have a brief tantalizing taste of cooler dryer air on Thursday after the passage of a weak cold front. Unfortunately, the cool air didn’t last and now we are back in the “soup” with rain, high humidity and no really cool air expected for awhile. If the rainy season doesn’t end by November 5, it will be the longest lasting rainy season on record. The previous longest rainy season lasted until November 5 in 1998.
Although it will be nice when we get to our dry season, the longer the rain lasts, the better off we’ll be as far as supplying our water needs for the next 7 months.The long range forecasts show an end to the rains around November 7 after a surface low pressure moves by us. This is, of course, is the exact scenario that occurred back in late October 2005 when Hurricane Wilma moved across south Florida but was closely followed by cool air. Hopefully, we will not have a repeat performance of a tropical storm or hurricane but regardless, the cooler air will arrive by the second week in November.
Jim Lushine
