The Day Your Lawn Was Saved

It is very hard to imagine just one day’s worth of rainfall saved South Florida from a year’s worth of weather calamities, but looking back as of today…

It’s absolutely true.

Here’s the scenario:  Thanks to a plethora of tropical storms hitting Florida and thanks to a report outlining the problems with Lake Okeechobee’s dike system, water managers lowered the lake level in the name of safety.

A different name emerged:  Drought.

Turns out, we needed that water… as more tropical storms (and their deluges of rain) didn’t come in the summers of 2006 & 2007.  Lake Okeechobee fell to dangerously low levels.  Even though the lake isn’t Broward & Miami-Dade’s primary source of water, the lake level is the barometer that water managers use to impose watering restrictions.

So put simply:  When lake levels go down, so does the quality of your yard.

Lake Okeechobee was dangerously low going into Hurricane Season 2008, and strict watering restrictions for farmers, golf courses, industry, and homeowners were put into effect.  Quietly, folks in the weather industry were saying that the only thing that could get us out of that drought was some kind of tropical system (not that anyone was hoping for that).

Guess what:  That’s exactly what happened.

August 19, 2008:  That’s when Tropical Storm Fay made landfall in mainland South Florida.  Wind turned out not to be too big of an issue. 

But man did it RAIN.  Not measured in inches… but in feet.  The Daytona area received more than two feet of rain.  Much of Central Florida got more than a foot.  Lake Okeechobee, and the areas that help feed the lake its’ water, got on average 18″ of rain.

As a result, the Lake rose quicker in one week than it ever did in its’ history.  In just one day, our drought was gone.

Looking back now, that one day saved us.  Rainfall the past three months is at about 10 percent of normal.  That’s a severe short-term deficit, and it’s enough to put the current lake level 1.5 feet below the 40-year average.

Thankfully we just have to imagine this, but think how much a deficit we would be in right now if Fay didn’t raise the Lake six feet.  We lost at least two of those feet when water managers let some of it flow away, but simple math says the current lake level of 13 feet might be more like 8 or 9 feet without Fay.

Last year, in a huge drought, it was 10.14 feet.

Why should we care?  Let me list the reasons.  Mandatory water restrictions.  Golf courses (a big part of our economy) nearly unusable.  Landscaping industry decimated.  Lawns and plants dead.  A spring fire season much worse than normal.  Restrictions on Everglades recreational use.  Salinity increases in our aquifer.  Fishing impacts.

Lots of stuff — and none of it good.

So let’s be thankful (for the most part) for Tropical Storm Fay — six months later, it is proving to be a rainmaker “good to the last drop”.

We’re Not Done Yet…

Things have been incredibly slow in the tropics recently… slow enough that even some of us in the weather office had been lulled into a false sense of security that the last storm of the 2008 Hurricane Season was already behind us.

Nope.  We’re not done yet.

Earlier today, Tropical Depression #17 formed off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras.  It spawned from a stationary and large area of low pressure that has been sitting on the warmest waters in all of the Atlantic Basin.  The Hurricane Hunters investigated today… and they found enough of a low-level circulation to call it TD #17.

Wind shear is low enough and the water warm enough that this system will likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm Paloma tonight or Thursday morning.  The official NHC forecast even calls for it to become a Category 1 hurricane by Friday.  So this may in fact become a significant storm.

Its’ track, thankfully, will likely keep Paloma away from South Florida… but not by much.  The system will drift to the northwest and north for the next two days before turning to the northeast towards Southeast Cuba.  That turn will happen because of a large dip in the jet stream over the southeast USA.  If that dip wasn’t there, we might be looking at some impacts here.  But that’s not what we see happening… as of this writing, we feel that Paloma will stay to our south and have a minimal impact (rain) if any here in South Florida.

Stay tuned to NBC6 and nbc6.net for the latest on this storm… and have a good night.

 

– Paul

Life’s Real Hurricanes

Look up the word “hurricane” in the dictionary — and you’ll find a definition similar to this:  “A powerful storm, tropical in nature, with winds in excess of 74 miles an hour…”

But the true hurricanes in our lives aren’t tropical in nature.  They’re the events — maybe only a handful in a lifetime – that literally change who we are.

Singer Baz Luhrmann said wisely in his popular song, “Sunscreen”, not to worry about the small stuff, because “The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind, the kind that blindside you at 4pm on some idle Tuesday.” 

He was almost perfectly right.  My “hurricane” came at 3pm on an idle Wednesday.

I had just left a message on my dad’s voicemail that my son, Brock, had taken his first fall off the couch like a true man.  This momentus occasion naturally needed to be shared with the entire family.  I got a call back in just minutes… but it wasn’t my father.  It was his wife, Marlene.

“Paul, your dad is in the hospital.”

The next few minutes were a blur as I drove to work on I-75 learning that my father’s recent back pain quickly turned to tingling… then numbness… then the emergent need to remove a “mass” from his spinal column.

“Paul, right now your dad can’t move his legs.”

Thanks to a very understanding co-worker (John Gerard) and executive producer (Mike Jenkins), I was able to get on a plane just hours after the surgery.  While on the flight north to Philadelphia, I tried to prepare myself for what to expect.  This “hospital” thing is rather foreign to me — in my 30’s, I still have three living grandparents to enjoy time with.  So, I gave an honest attempt to contain my emotions and be strong for my dad.

It didn’t work.

Upon entering Room #10 of the ICU at Pennsylvania Hospital, I saw him.

My dad.

My oldest memory is of being a baby in a diaper and t-shirt… waiting by the front door for my dad to come home from work.

My dad — in the hospital. 

I remember my dad playing catch with me behind his apartment.  I remember my dad in the stands of each and every one of my Little League and High School football & baseball games. 

My dad moved me into my dorm room at Syracuse University.  Drove his then 21-year-old son across the country to his first TV job in Medford, Oregon.  Flew out to see me in Spokane, Washington, to meet the girl I was falling in love with (her name is Suzanne, my wife of eight years – and I still am falling in love with her).  Flew to Miami on the first possible flight when his grandson was born last year.

4 Generations of Deanno

He’s always been there.

But now, my dad is in a hospital bed.  Unable to move his legs.

And I lost it. 

I started crying with intensity I have never felt before.  I couldn’t control the emotion.  Here’s my dad — the self-made vice-president of a Philly labor union who just oozes life – struggling to simply wiggle his toes.  Seeing him in this state was one of the toughest things I’ve done.

This was the strongest “hurricane” I’ve ever felt.

I spent a few days with my dad… watching baseball, talking about Brock, just sitting there.  Doctors came in telling my father he had a good chance of walking normally again, but that tests on the mass were still inconculsive and that it might be a form of cancer. 

Friends and family formed a river of humanity flowing in & out of the room.

Life slowly — very slowly — returning.

When I left for the airport, I told my dad “I love you”.  Now I’ve done this thousands of times before — we’re actually quite good at always ending our phone conversations with that phrase.  But I think I meant it more that one time than all of the other times combined.  Because this was the first time I could ever remember thinking that it might be the LAST time I say it to him in person.

“I love you, dad.”

Those few days — this “hurricane” — has changed me.  Not only do I cherish time with my father more than ever… I now do the same with my little boy.  I am a son… but I’m also now a dad — and I now realize that every moment with Brock is that much more precious.

This “storm” has also put my life’s other events in proper perspective.  The economy stinks, NBC6 is getting sold, and drivers on I-75 annoy me.  These things all mattered a few weeks ago.  Today they matter much LESS.  Family is what matters.  Love is what matters.  Health is what matters.  If you have these things, the other daily tribulations will have an amazing way of working themselves out.

My dad is a tough guy — I have a gut feeling that he will be walking… and healthy… soon.  If prayer and good thoughts have anything to do with it (and they do) — he’ll be walking that much sooner.

As a meteorologist, I thought I had some expertise in hurricanes.  Turns out I didn’t.

Life’s real “hurricanes” you can’t prepare for… and I just got hit by one.

September Ending Like A Lamb…

Last day… and last post… in September and it looks like we will end the month with no significant tropical threat.  Laura is a moderately strong tropical storm… but it’s way out there with Greenland as the only landmass in its’ sights.  Obviously no threat to us in South Florida.

But this hurricane season has been wacky.  A tropical storm (Fay) that hit Florida four times, dumping 27″ of rain in Melbourne… four hurricanes hitting Cuba… and a major storm (Ike) missing us but hitting Texas directly.

Even though we’re well off the hurricane season “peak” of September 10… activity can still flare up in October.  In fact, October is the 3rd busiest month during hurricane season.

We’re getting there… but we’re not there yet.

– Paul

It’s A Strange Time Of Year…

The last few days of September are upon us and by mid-week, POOF, October shows up.

Many associate October with the real season of “change” (which means nothing this time of year, as political warfare has neutralized the effectiveness of this word…) – a change in the length of the days, a change in the humidity, a change in the amount of rain we see, etc.

And while all those things are true in most respects (and have a positive association with the weather across the area), we must not forget about the ugly face this month can bring us in terms of tropical weather. As we’ve reminded you in the past, moving into October does not mean “it’s over.”  In fact, sometimes it means, “it’s closer!”  Closer meaning the possibility of storms brewing up NEARBY versus storms we can track across the Atlantic or Caribbean before they get near us.

During this month the Gulf, Caribbean and nearby Atlantic waters take on a higher percentage risk area of tropical genesis, so we cannot let our guard down.  It only takes a weak frontal boundary, some light wind shear and a cluster or two of thunderstorms to strike up our next named system.

A few computer models hint at some activity in the coming days…but with no certainty, we always just keep watching.

My point here is that it’s not over.  Not yet.  Flipping the calendar brings us one step closer but we’re not to the finish line just yet.  Remember “Wilma”…OCT 24th, 2005…a late-season knock-out punch to what was already a record breaking season. 

Wilma: A 5 hour trek across South Florida.

Also…I have to note that Hurricane Kyle shot up into Canada this weekend (rare)…

Sub-tropical Storm Laura was crowned early this morning in the far reaches of the North Atlantic.

And we’ll see what comes next and for the rest of the season.  The next name on the 2008 list:

“Marco”

It’s not over until…well…it’s over. 

Stay tuned.

-Ryan Phillips

One eye to the north, one eye to the east

The only tropical feature in town has been the broad area of low pressure lingering near Puerto Rico.  Although it’s a small, unnamed feature right now in the Caribbean, it has presented flooding rains there for the last two days.

Several recon flights, doppler radar & satellite observation has yet to yield a system with a name or a number, but don’t let that fool you…it’s been packing a punch.

Here’s the water vapor and enhanced satellite imagery from Tuesday morning:

Water VaporEnhanced IR

While the system looks fairly robust, the interaction it has had with land has been holding it back from development.

There is a window for development in the next day or so… and while that is possible…our saving grace in Florida will be the presence of an upper-level trough swinging through the area.

You can see the trough here, using water vapor imagery, moving over Florida:

Regional WV

This trough will help to hold anything out there to our east, moving it north and away from Florida.  in fact, over the next few days, we’ll be in for some nice weather as dry, stable air settles in behind any low pressure cells that form in the Western Atlantic…either from the tropical entity in the Caribbean or the broad trough digging in.

So the bottom line of today:  all is well for Florida.

Not Even A Name…

…but we have another problem in the Caribbean.

In Texas, it was the SURGE.

In Cuba, it has been the WIND.

In Haiti & Puerto Rico, it has been the RAIN.  And it’s happening again tonight.

A tropical disturbance (not organized enough to have a defined “center”) has been lingering over Puerto Rico for the past few days… and almost 30″ of rain has fallen in less than two days.  That’s more than enough to send many rivers over flood stage, and the rains have led to at least four deaths in Puerto Rico.  Sometimes the strength of a tropical system doesn’t matter as much as its’ movement.  We learned that lesson with Tropical Storm Fay in Central Florida.  History is repeating itself tonight in the Caribbean.

Where will this disturbance end up?  All computer models pull it almost due north (the trough in the jet stream over the Southeast USA will help us out big-time) — either moving it up toward New England or out to sea.

South Florida should see little or no impact from this disturbance… and nothing else is brewing in the tropics as of tonight.

Have a good one!

– Paul

A Break In The Action…

After we’ve racked up ten named storms this season…and roughly a month-long period (mid-AUG through mid-SEP) with a named storm somewhere in the Atlantic Basin…it’s nice to have a break in the action across the tropics.

The overall environment the last few days, although likely temporary, has not been condusive to development, mainly thanks to a “shield” of upper level wind shear in Atlantic.

For those of you who keep close tabs on the weather, specifically tropical weather, you’ll know we reached the statistical peak of hurricane season late last week.  But just reaching the peak does not mean it’s over.  Far from it, in fact.  Even though it’s quiet now, the next four week period or so constitutes  the “hang on to your hat” part of this roller coaster ride.  Reaching the peak of the season doesn’t mean the rest of the season is a fast down-hill slope to the end, November 30th.

Please know: I’m not saying we’re going to see explosive development in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico…

I am saying, though, that playing the historical/statistical trends, we’re bound to have some more storms out there.  On top of that, the later we get in the season, the better the chances for storms to form “closer to home” versus tracking them across the open oceans.

So enjoy the lull we have and hope that it lasts.  Likely, it won’t.  There will be a few more storms to go.   “Kyle” is up to bat next…but right now I don’t see him on deck.

If you need a laugh, please have it at the expense of one of my close friend, Mike Bettes.  Mike, co-host of “Abrams & Bettes” on recently NBC-acquired network channel “The Weather Channel,” is seen here covering “Ike’s” landfall last week.  Attempting to position himself, the wind gets the best of him.  Pure grace, Mike…and I’m glad you didn’t get hurt!

Fast forward to :45 to get to the good stuff.

 

-Ryan

Ike Weakens

Ike is now a minimal tropical storm near Tyler, Texas and will soon be downgraded to a tropical depression. It’s expected to merge with a strong cold front over the Midwest by Monday and lose any remaining tropical characteristics. Isolated tornadoes and heavy rain arestill expected from Texas to Arkansas,  into Missouri, Illinois and Indiana tonight and tomorrow but generally the weather is expected to improve in the hardest hit areas along the Gulf coast by Sunday. The thing that struck me was how large Ike was. When you hear that Ike was a “large” storm, we’re not referring to it’s maximum sustained winds, but rather the “extent” of the strong winds. The Saffir-Simpson classification scale for hurricanes (cat.1, cat.2, etc…) is based strictly on wind speed so many were convinced that Ike would be the typical category 2 hurricane. (as if that makes it any less dangerous). Ike might have been a cat. 2 but it’s power was more like a cat. 3 because it had an unusually large storm surge for a category 2 hurricane and tropical storm forced winds extended out over 500 miles from the center. Did you see how big the eye got? Remember, a tight center (small compact eye) like Andrew means an intense system but tightly wound with destructive winds extending only a small distance from the center. A larger eye means the hurricane won’t be as intense but the swath of winds will be distributed over a larger area. In other words, instead of 150 mph winds covering a radius of 40 miles, Ike had winds of 100 mph that covered over 60 miles and winds of 70 mph that covered over 400 miles. Less wind but a larger area as opposed to stronger winds in a smaller area. Ike will likely rain itself out across the midwest by midweek. I found it interesting how many residents of the Gulf coast were on t.v. today saying they regretted not evacuating. I’m watching some of the remnants of Josephine trying to spin up just east of the Bahamas this evening. I do not expect any significant development but it might increase our rain chances a bit as we head into the new week. The system is currently moving WNW and will be near or just off the Florida coast on Monday. Thanks for checking out our blog. There is no 6PM news tonight because of the Notre Dame/Michigan game so I thought I would check in for anybody who still needs info about Ike since I had a moment. Enjoy the rest of your weekend

John Gerard

Galveston Disappears (Temporarily)…

Back at the turn of the century (the 20th century) — a great and bustling seaport thrived on the Texas coastline.  This city was one of the richest in the nation… and was primed to be one of the most important American cities as the nation continued to become an industrial might.

Then a hurricane came.  And everything changed.

The city was Galveston — and back in 1900, the city… and to some extent, the nation’s history took a detour.  Weather officials in Galveston largely ignored telegraph reports coming out of Cuba saying that a large storm was heading into the Gulf.  Without much warning, folks in Galveston went about their daily lives.  But then one night, the water started to rise.  And rise.  And rise.

Before residents could leave, the only bridge to the mainland was washed out.  The storm surge topped 20 feet.  More than 6,000 people drowned because the island they lived on temporarily disappeared.  The land went away.

So what did Galveston do???  It’s actually an amazing story I was fortunate enough to cover during the city’s 100 year commemoration of the “Great Hurricane” (while I was working in San Antonio).  All buildings left standing were literally put on stilts and raised several feet.  City leaders pumped in dirt and fill from the Gulf and nearby bay… and in essence raised the elevation of Galveston some 8-10 feet.  It took years.

They then built a sea-wall to a height of around 14 feet to try and prevent a tragedy like this from ever happening again.

Now… fast-forward 108 years… and we have Ike.

Ike’s storm surge — estimated to be 20 feet tonight with 20-30 foot waves crashing on top of it — may submerge Galveston for a second time.  Of course, we now have things like satellites, hurricane warnings, and high-rise buildings… so it’s hard to compare the two storms… but this is the worst-case scenario for the Houston/Galveston area.

Here’s what could happen:  Many of the people who chose to ride Ike out in Galveston may lose their lives if they can’t get into a structure higher than two stories.  Many folks who live in mobile homes or other weak structures around Houston who chose to ride Ike out may also lose their lives.  Galveston Bay — which goes inland all the way to Houston — may also see a surge of up to 20 feet… flooding much of the 4th largest city in the USA.  Other small towns on the Gulf Coast may get wiped out similarly to what happened to Biloxi, MS, in 2005.

This unfortunately could be very bad.

Let us hope and pray that somehow Ike weakens and/or moves a bit north or south so Galveston could avoid a direct hit… but as it looks in our weather office tonight… I expect to see some pictures of destruction of the Galveston area as soon as Saturday afternoon.

Hopefully history — in this case — does not repeat itself.